1 Characteristics of the current operation of China's machinery industry (1) Production and sales are still at a high level, but the growth rate is gradually falling, and the growth rate is slowing down. Although the growth rate is gradually falling, the total output value has dropped by 3-4 percentage points, but still maintained a double-digit (20% or more) growth rate.
(2) The growth rate of output value of new products has dropped significantly. From January to August, the output value of new products was 110.723 billion yuan, an increase of 23.97% over the same period of last year and a drop of 14.50 percentage points over the previous year's growth rate (38.47%). Among them, the growth rate of automobiles, instrumentation and other industries is relatively low, which has a great impact on the growth of new products in the whole industry.
(3) The growth of export delivery value was basically stable, and the growth rate dropped significantly. The export delivery value this year was about 896.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.91%, and the growth rate dropped by 2.3 percentage points. The growth rate in the first eight months dropped by 10.28 percentage points, which was a large drop.
(4) The output of major products continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate. From January to September, the output reached 178,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%. Harvest machinery and feed processing machinery increased by 25.03% and 53.25%, respectively, and the growth rate was still relatively strong, but by September, the growth rate began to decline significantly.
2 machine tools. The growth rate of CNC machine tool output is still significantly faster than the overall growth rate of Jinchee machine tools, indicating that structural adjustment is still in progress. From January to September, the output of CNC machine tools was close to 120,000 units, reaching the same period last year. The output growth rate of CNC forging machine tools is nearly 50% higher than that of ordinary forging machines.
3 cars. From January to September, vehicle production reached 7.5 million vehicles, an increase of 17.68% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points. Among them, the growth rate of cars has dropped faster. The target of 10 million vehicles is expected to be difficult this year (8.8 million last year). The growth rate of car output with a displacement of more than 2.6 liters dropped by nearly 60%.
(5) The investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry was more than 570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.17%. The growth rate was nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of last year, and the decline was obvious.
(6) Although the import and export trade still has a steady growth, the difference between the growth of imports and exports has decreased significantly. The increase in 2007 was 20 percentage points, and this year it was only 9 percentage points. The surplus also began to fall.
In summary, in the first 10 months of 2008, China's machinery industry gradually slowed down from high-speed operation to slow operation. Although it still maintained a high development speed, the speed of decline was gradually accelerated. From the analysis of product structure, in the two largest industries of the machinery industry, the electrical industry has slowed down, and the automobile industry has fallen faster and the trend is obvious. The decline of the machine tool industry began with ordinary machine tools. The current output is only about 1/3 of last year, and some enterprises have stopped production. The growth of large and medium-sized tractors and harvesters in the agricultural machinery industry has also been greatly restricted. Since August, the growth rate has declined rapidly.
2 Analysis of the current situation of China's machinery industry (1) Facing the situation has deteriorated, external factors have prompted the industry's weaknesses to be revealed or highlighted.
1 The price of raw materials has been at a high level. In the first quarter of this year, the average price of steel purchased by enterprises rose by 1,257 yuan/ton, up by 1,700 yuan/ton in May, and the year-on-year increase in June was as high as 2028 yuan/ton. The rapid rise in raw materials has caused the company's product costs to soar, and many material-intensive companies are in trouble.
2 Labor costs have risen rapidly. According to many companies, after the implementation of the new labor contract law, the average labor cost of enterprises in the middle and downstream of technical content increased by 35%-40%. For example, Tianneng International Group, which produces power batteries, pays an annual salary of 60 million yuan, an increase of 37%, while the price of its products has dropped by 9% under the pressure of market competition. The production of enterprises is unsustainable.
3 borrowing is more difficult. Many enterprises have difficulty in liquidity. In order to solve the urgent need for capital turnover, some enterprises have been forced to resort to private loans (underground money houses). This kind of practice is like drinking and quenching thirst. For example, Feiyue Group only paid 90 million yuan in interest payments on usury in 2007, which led to a serious financial crisis.
4 The impact of RMB appreciation has gradually emerged. With the increase in export costs and the slowdown in market demand, China's traditional product exports are in a period of upgrading and upgrading. Due to the appreciation of the renminbi, many enterprises have been stagnant and bankrupt. For example, textile, electronic components, auto parts and other export-oriented enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have encountered great difficulties, and the machinery industry that supplies them is also equipped. Greatly affected. Although the appreciation of the renminbi puts urgent demands on the product structure, due to the rapid changes in the situation, the adjustment of enterprises has been passive. According to statistics, there are thousands of enterprises that have closed down in Wuxi alone, causing tens of thousands of people to lose their jobs, which has also put pressure on social stability.
(2) China's machinery industry industry and product structure adjustments are in place, making it difficult for many companies to cope with the sudden changes in the situation. 1 Blindly expanding production capacity, making it difficult for enterprises to survive in the event of a sudden market change. For example, the production capacity of China's power generation equipment was only 12 million kilowatts 10 years ago, and now it has expanded to more than 100 million kilowatts, 10 times in 10 years; China's automobile industry capacity was only 1 million units 10 years ago, and now it is close to 10 million. The production capacity of the vehicle has also increased by 10 times; the output of China's machine tools was only 100,000 units 10 years ago, and now it has exceeded 1 million units, which has also increased by 10 times; the output of large and medium-sized tractors in the agricultural machinery industry was only 20,000 units 10 years ago. It has reached 200,000 units. It should be said that the capacity growth of these industries is still positive, but there are certain risks. And some of the backward products have also been in the past few decades, the level has not improved, and the energy consumption is huge. In a certain period of time, market demand has grown rapidly, attracting enterprises to rush, but in reality it is often an illusion. The current crisis has plummeted and exposed many serious problems. Small four-wheel and walking tractors in the agricultural machinery industry, ordinary machine tools in the machine tool industry, single-cylinder machines in the internal combustion engine industry, low-voltage switches in the electrician industry, circuit breakers, wire and cable, etc., these annual production capacity has increased by several times, once the market appears A crisis will result in a large-scale suspension or closure of the enterprise. As a typical example, there is a company that makes circuit breakers. In the past, the output value of 200 million yuan can have a profit of 40 million yuan. Now it has achieved a production value of more than 1 billion yuan, but only 15 million yuan. The blind increase in production capacity and the reduction in market access thresholds have led to fierce vicious competition, which has made it difficult for some companies to continue to develop and operate normally when the market fluctuates or the external environment deteriorates. Xinhua News Agency recently had an internal investigation, the title is "Zhejiang a batch of industry singles champions" in trouble.
2 The product structure is slow to adjust, and the new technology and core technology are slower and less. Many enterprises face the "three noes" situation without technology sources, unbranded products, and no market sales when the situation changes. In recent years, a considerable number of enterprises in the machinery industry are doing OEM products. At present, the foreign market has shrunk dramatically. Coupled with the successive vicious incidents of product quality, the unfavorable propaganda of Chinese products has affected the machinery industry. The older generation of products has gradually faded out of the domestic and international market, while the new generation of products is developing slowly. For example, the single-cylinder machine of the internal combustion engine industry was a product of the 1960s and is still the main product; the ordinary lathe of the machine tool industry has been produced for more than half a century, and still has considerable output. In the current market situation, the decline of many such products is serious.
3 Standards and testing techniques are relatively lagging behind, which has made our products have a “global encirclement†trend. The standard structure of China's machinery industry is irrational, there are few advanced standards, few standards in new fields, lack of experimental means and scientific data collection sources. At present, foreign countries have proposed to detect heavy metals, radioactive substances and other substances that are harmful to human health and polluting the environment. We should make preparations for this, otherwise many export products will face the "disaster".
Today and the next two years are the key period for the development of China's machinery industry. We must be prepared for danger in times of peace. The machinery industry cannot always develop at a high speed, and it is impossible for it to be lost forever. We must take advantage of the industry development foundation that we have already obtained, take advantage of the current high development opportunities, accelerate structural adjustment, avoid major mistakes, and enable China's machinery industry to continue along a good and fast road.
(Source: "Outlook tool" Author: executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation Yang Xuetong) (This article is the author statement in November 2008 on "Third modern cutting and Survey Engineering (International) Symposium" in)
Analysis of the overall operation situation of China's machinery industry
In the first 10 months of 2008, China's machinery industry was still operating at a high level, but it gradually showed a downward trend. From January to September, China's machinery industry completed a total output value of 6.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, the growth rate dropped by 3.24 percentage points; completed sales income of 6.51 trillion yuan, the growth rate dropped by 4.23 percentage points; completed industrial added value 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.13% year-on-year, the growth rate dropped by 0.97 percentage points; the profit was 319 billion yuan, an increase of 22.19%; the product sales rate was 96.21%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year; the total import and export volume was 325.3 billion US dollars, up 28.13 year-on-year. %, the growth rate dropped by 3.21 percentage points. Among them, the export was 178 billion US dollars, an increase of 33.14%; the import was 152.8 billion US dollars, and the accumulated surplus was 26.1 billion US dollars.