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Deng Gang, Vice President of Jinan Shengquan Group Co., Ltd.
1. Overview of the global and Chinese economy in 2014
The World Bank predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.8% in 2014, the People's Bank of China forecasts 3.6%, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts 3.3%, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts 3.4%.
Although the Chinese economy continued to lead the world in the 11 months of this year, the downward trend was obvious. In the first quarter, it was 7.4%, less than the planned 7.5%, the lowest since the financial crisis. In the second quarter, although the GDP growth rate rebounded to 7.5%, However, GDP in the third quarter increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the innovation was low. Although it will rebound in the fourth quarter, the annual GDP is expected to be around 7.4%, and it will fall next year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first ten months of the year was 6.7%, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than that in January-September. It is estimated that the Chinese government will reduce its GDP growth target from 7.0% in 2014 to 7.0% in 2015. It is expected that China's GDP growth rate will fall from 7.0% in 2014 to 7.0% in 2014, and will continue to fall to 6.6% in 2016. about. In the face of economic downward pressure, it is one of the characteristics of the current government's governance. The real estate market, for example, the new construction area of ​​housing in January-June was down 16.4% year-on-year, and the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide fell by 6. 0%, the sales of commercial housing nationwide fell by 6.7% year-on-year. Although the development momentum has declined somewhat, in the past six months, the State Council executive meeting on research and development strategy has not specifically targeted real estate, nor has it put forward strong incentives such as “saving the marketâ€. plan.
Statistics show that fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 1.32% in May and 1.45% in June. Real estate experts interviewed here believe that in the case of real estate continued to fall, the slight rebound in investment in May and June reflects the optimization of China's economic structure. Do not make too much regulation on the real estate itself and make a fuss about the optimization and upgrading of the weak links in the economy, which captures the key points of the problem.
Professor Li Yining gave his own views on economic growth. He believes that China should bid farewell to the era of ultra-high-speed growth. In the past few years, China has actually not grown according to economic laws. Few countries can maintain it for many years. More than 10% growth, even 8%, 9% is difficult to maintain for a long time, which is not in line with economic laws.
Economist Wu Jinglian also agrees that the ultra-high-speed growth supported by high investment can no longer be maintained. China should enter a shift period of GDP growth. The so-called arrogant rush, that is, open in the fourth gear, once stepping on the throttle, it will rush forward, but the current lack of success has not been done, and now should be changed to low-end, because of the need Climb the slope. This is an indisputable fact, or in another sentence, we are entering the new normal.
2. Characteristics of the new economic normal and market opportunities
Now, the Chinese economy is showing a new normal. The three main characteristics of the new normal are: first, from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth; second, the economic structure is continuously optimized and upgraded, the consumption demand of the tertiary industry is gradually becoming the main body, the gap between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing, and the proportion of household income is rising, and employment will be employed. The rate does not fall, the development results benefit the wider public; the third is from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven.
The new normal will bring new development opportunities to China, including:
First, under the new normal, although China's economic growth rate has slowed down, the actual increase is still considerable. After more than 30 years of super-fast growth, China's economic volume has not been the same. In 2013, the increase of China's economy was equivalent to the total economic volume in 1994. Even the growth of around 7%, regardless of speed or volume, is among the best in the world.
Second, under the new normal, China's economic growth is progressing steadily, and its growth momentum is more diversified, and it will gradually evolve into a bullish driving state. Some people are worried that China's economic growth will not fall further. Can it climb over the ridge? The risks do exist, but not so terrible. The strength and toughness of China's economy is the most powerful support for risk prevention. The ideas and methods of China's innovative macro-control, with the current strategy and foreign exchange reserves, the government has the confidence and ability to deal with all possible risks. Relevant departments are working together to promote new industrialization, urbanization, informationization, and agricultural modernization. These are all effective ways to resolve various social contradictions. The Chinese economy is more dependent on domestic consumer demand and avoids relying on external risks of exports.
Third, under the new normal, China's economic structure is optimized and upgraded, and its development prospects are even longer. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s final consumption contributed 48.5% to economic growth, exceeding investment. The added value of the service industry accounted for 46.7%, continuing to surpass the secondary industry. The growth rate of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry was 12.3% and 11.1%, respectively, which was significantly higher than the average industrial growth rate. The energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 4.6%. These data show that China's economic structure is undergoing profound changes, with better quality and better structure.
Fourth, under the new normal, the Chinese government has vigorously simplified administration and decentralized power, and the market vitality has been further released. In short, it is to let go of the government’s visible hand and use the invisible hand of the market. Take the previously reformed enterprise registration system as an example. In the first three quarters, the number of newly registered enterprises in the country was 9.2 million, and the number of new enterprises increased by more than 60% compared with last year. The wave of national entrepreneurship and all innovation is taking shape.
Fifth, under the new normal, the employment rate will become an indicator of greater government concern. Under the current social security system in China, the rising unemployment rate will bring great social instability, which is the last thing our party and country are most willing to see. But there is also a problem, hidden unemployment has also become a major scourge in the city.
3. How to adapt to the "new normal economy"
"Adapt to the new normal, maintain a normal mentality of strategy", "further enhance confidence, adapt to the new normal, and jointly promote sustained and healthy economic development." The major strategic judgment of the "new normal" put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping profoundly revealed the new changes in China's economic development stage, and fully demonstrated the central government's far-sighted strategic vision and undecided decision-making power. Looking at the "economically tested" transcripts in the first half of this year from the perspective of the "new normal", we will find many new and gratifying highlights.
- Steady progress. Under the new normal, although the growth rate has slowed down, the quality of development has continued to improve. With the supply of capital, land and other factors declining, the resources and environment are in debt, the service industry, especially the financial services industry, stands out and the industrial structure is continuously optimized. As the price of labor and other factors rises and the savings rate declines, the troika of the economy is pulled. "China's export and investment growth slows down, consumption growth, demand structure will continue to be optimized; with the new urbanization development, industrial transfer, urban and rural regional structure will continue to optimize; with the reduction of labor supply, human resources scarcity, income distribution The structure will also be continuously optimized. The "new normal" under this new feature and new trend has been fully manifested in the first half of the year. Although the growth rate of 7.4% has slowed down, it is still unique in the world. At the same time, structural adjustment "in" is in it, and "steady progress" is becoming a new posture of China's economic giant.
- Control innovation. Under the new normal, the economic growth rate shifted from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. China is currently in a shift period of economic growth. At this time, macroeconomic policies must be stable, microeconomic policies must be alive, and social policies must be guaranteed. On the other hand, under the new normal, social and economic development has changed from the extensive use of selling resources to sell the environment to sell cheap labor to high-efficiency, low-cost, sustainable and environmentally friendly innovation, which requires us to The transfer mode and the adjustment structure are placed in a more prominent position. In 2014, the Party Central Committee and the State Council changed the previous strong incentives, major adjustments and methods, adhered to the scope of regulation and control, and focused on directional regulation; grasping key areas and weak links in the economic structure to make more accurate and long-term layout, leaving no Side effects; do not engage in headaches and pains, but insist on "coordinating and regulating", stabilizing growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood, comprehensively considering the downward pressure on the economy and promoting economic quality and efficiency, regulating effectiveness longer. "Regulation and innovation" is becoming the new steering wheel of China's economic giant.
- The administrative revolution. Under the new normal, the requirements for transfer mode and structure adjustment are more urgent. This requires us to change the situation of the big government small market in the past by comprehensively deepening reforms, improve the market system, deepen reform of state-owned enterprises, and gradually remove the administrative system mechanism. The original "short board". Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly mentioned the simple decentralization of power, and the reform of the State Council can be described as drastic, and reforms in key areas such as fiscal and tax reform, price reform, state-owned enterprise reform, financial reform, and power reform have continued to be carried out. The reform dividend has continued to be released and the economic development has been strengthened. "Deepening reform and administrative revolution" is becoming a new impetus for China's economic giant.
The new normal indicates that the Chinese economy has entered a more mature stage of development, and the resulting impact is generally positive and upward. Every enterprise and everyone can only take a scientific view of the new normal and actively adapt to the new normal, in order to be invincible in the new wave of reforms in China.
4. Investment direction under the new economic normal
The first is the direction of the general consumption upgrade industry. The basic consumption of human beings is from the aspects of eating, wearing, using, traveling, living, and playing. With the continuous development of the reform and opening-up economy for more than 30 years, the Chinese people have solved the need for food and clothing, basic daily necessities and basic housing. However, food safety has made the market fearful, and refrigerators, color TV medical education, and other life needs to be upgraded and replaced. Intelligent transformation, even the large expenditures such as motorhomes need to be continuously improved and improved. But today's consumption "upgrade" is not a simple repetition and an increase in the number. Therefore, eating green food, using intelligence, life and leisure, the car should be safer and more comfortable, living in the city is an apartment, living in the suburbs is a villa. With the aging of the aging, the side effects of the family planning policy that has been implemented in China for nearly 40 years have gradually emerged, the demand for old-age care has escalated, and the demand for health has increased. Some people have proposed a big health industry. In fact, the big health industry itself is a consumption upgrading industry, but what do we do in terms of health needs? The core strength is three, one is the investment construction of the hospital, the second is the pension, the third is Leisure health care. This opportunity is very important for the construction of large hospitals. Many governments want to go to hospitals or nursing homes themselves, but the funding gap is large. If investors are interested in intervening in this field, it is equivalent to the government solving market problems for investors and operating from the market. The terminal should consider the interests of the investors in all aspects, because the matter itself is solving a big social problem for the government, and the government cannot be unactive. Leisure health care is not a shampoo massage health farmhouse in the narrow sense, but an upgraded version of “playing†such as tourism, entertainment, sightseeing and other service industries. It can even be said to be a new attitude and way of life. If we can combine culture with tourism and do such projects in cities and tourist spots, there is room for it.
The second is the direction of the big Internet industry. Undoubtedly, this society has transitioned from the era of industrial civilization to the era of information civilization. In the field of network information, broadband networks, wireless networks, and intelligent networks are rapidly developing, and supercomputing, virtual reality, network manufacturing, and network value-added services are advancing by leaps and bounds. The Internet has walked through all aspects of our lives and work. It is not about discussing whether our industry should touch the Internet, but how or how all industries should embrace the Internet. PC Internet has become a new term in the past, mobile Internet, big data, WeChat, APP, etc., an explosive and huge amount of information. In the past, "Thirty years of Hedong thirty years of Hexi", now "three years of Hedong three years Hexi" even It is "three days of Hedong three days in Hexi." The big Internet industry not only includes e-commerce, information industry, but also a series of modern logistics, warehousing industry, electronics, communications, transportation, entertainment games, social networking, etc. Because the Internet, especially the mobile Internet and big data, originally thought it is impossible An industry that has become a possible thing to form. The direction of the big Internet industry will continue to refresh the eyes of the world, and it will continue to create companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi.
The third is the big financial industry. 2015 is China's “financial yearâ€. The current financial system is the biggest obstacle to the further development of China's economy. The economy has entered a new normal and needs to establish a more inclusive and open competitive financial system. In the next step, China must actively implement financial reforms, interest rate liberalization, exchange rate liberalization, convertible under RMB capital projects, relax market access, develop a multi-level financial market system, broaden financing channels for enterprises, and accelerate the development of small and medium-sized financial institutions. Let private and other financial institutions with sufficient ownership have more room for development, and mixed operation of financial institutions will be a development trend. The crime of illegal fundraising will gradually be lifted in the Chinese legal dictionary, which of course requires a process. In 2015, China's stock market will take the lead in the country's ongoing financial reform process and measures. If nothing unexpected, it will come out with a market that surprises everyone.
The fourth direction is the direction of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry. In China today, it is already the world's number one in many traditional industries. However, with the continuous disappearance of the “reform dividends†and “demographic dividends†and the continuous deterioration of the environment, China's industry, especially the manufacturing industry, must undergo industrial transformation and upgrading. First, relying on technological innovation, and second, relying on the improvement of equipment manufacturing. Therefore, the upgrading and upgrading of China's equipment manufacturing industry is not only the need for the development of its own industry, but also shoulders the mission of upgrading the entire manufacturing industry and even the entire industry. This not only includes the equipment industry itself, but also related industries such as parts and raw materials. In advanced materials and manufacturing, the demand for new materials and manufacturing in the future of energy, information, environment, population health, and major engineering will continue to grow.
Coated abrasive industry, known as industrial teeth, is part of the equipment manufacturing industry. Under the "new normal", the whole industry should make progress towards high-end through technological innovation and technological transformation, and make due contributions to the upgrading of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry and the entire industry. (Author: Vice President Group Co., Ltd., Jinan Quan Deng Gang)
Industry expert Deng Gang talks about the Chinese economy of the "new normal first year"
Abstract : In May 2014, when General Secretary Xi Jinping visited Henan, he first proposed “accommodating the new normalâ€; on July 29, he again proposed “accommodating the new normal†at the symposium with non-party members; 11 On the 9th, President Xi said at the APEC meeting that the Chinese economy...
According to: In May 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping first proposed “adapting to the new normal†when he was inspecting in Henan. On July 29, he again proposed “adapting to the new normal†at the symposium with non-party members; November On the 9th, President Xi said at the APEC meeting that the Chinese economy has taken on a new normal and defined three main features of the new normal...