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The above forecast also means that China will increase steel production, although the government is working hard to curb the capacity that is widely considered to be bloated and highly polluting. As one of the measures to promote economic transformation, the Chinese government has promised to rectify the overcapacity of the steel industry, but this effort faces greater political resistance. In China, the steel industry is dominated by large companies.
China is the world's largest importer of iron ore. China imported iron ore last year, accounting for 63% of global imports. Li Xinchuang, executive deputy secretary-general of the China Iron and Steel Association, said at an industry conference on Tuesday that China's iron ore imports may increase by 6% this year to a record 870 million tons.
Although iron ore stocks in port warehouses are close to record highs and China's overall economic growth is slowing, steel companies are still buying iron ore. Li Xinchuang said that many steel mills are now competing to import iron ore. For example, if I see that you are importing iron ore, then I must also import it.
Some of China's demand may come from an increase in global iron ore supply, and rising supply makes iron ore prices more attractive. According to analysts, iron ore production by large iron ore producers worldwide is expected to increase by 126 million tons this year, up 14% year-on-year.
For miners, China's demand may help ease the decline in iron ore prices. Affected by the global economic slowdown and oversupply, the price of this year's benchmark grade of fine ore fell 21% year-on-year to around US$122 per ton. At the end of 2013, China’s buying interest had supported a slight increase in iron ore prices.
Pan Guocheng, president of China's iron ore miner China Hanking Holdings Ltd., said that domestic iron ore production costs are about 457 yuan (about 74 US dollars) per ton, still high, compared to The import cost is only 30-60 US dollars per ton.
This cost difference increases China's long-term dependence on overseas iron ore. Pan Guocheng expects that by 2016, the proportion of China's iron ore imports to total domestic iron ore consumption will rise from 72% last year to 77%. He expects China's iron ore imports to reach 949 million tons in 2016.
In order to reduce its reliance on overseas suppliers, the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) publicly urged Chinese steel companies to continue to acquire overseas iron ore assets last month.
Li Xinchuang said that China may import more iron ore from its own African projects instead of importing more iron ore from traditional Brazilian and Australian suppliers. Brazil and Australia have the world's largest iron ore producers such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale SA, with 70% of China's iron ore supply coming from these two countries.
China's current iron ore imports from Africa account for only 8% of total demand. If South Africa is excluded from the long-term supply country, this proportion will fall to 3%. However, China is establishing contacts with at least 15 African countries. According to customs data, China imported a small amount of iron ore from new suppliers such as Guinea Bissau, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Swaziland last year.
London-listed African mining company African Minerals Ltd. said last year that China's large iron ore trading company, Tianjin Minerals & Equipment Group Corp., will spend $990 million to acquire an iron ore mine in Sierra Leone. China Minmetals Corp. and Mauritania signed a six-year iron ore supply agreement. Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd. (China Aluminum) is jointly developing a large iron ore project in Simandou with Rio Tinto in the West African country.
Li Xinchuang said that China still needs to get rid of the monopoly of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, and the right of these global miners is still too big.
China is working hard to strengthen control over the steel industry, reduce industry size, reduce price volatility, and reduce environmental pollution. But Li Xinchuang said that China's crude steel output is likely to reach a record 815 million tons, most of which goes to the construction, automotive and manufacturing industries.
He said: The previous over-stimulation caused the situation to become complicated and caused the reform to be in trouble. Overcapacity in the steel industry is more serious than we think.
However, the China Iron and Steel Association said that the growth rate of crude steel production this year will slow down from 7.5 percent last year to 3%. Li Xinchuang said that the demand for construction in small towns may support the growth of steel consumption.
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China's dependence on overseas iron ore will record innovation
Industry insiders say China's dependence on overseas iron ore may reach a new record, which may help support the declining iron ore prices in the international market and prompt the Chinese government to increase efforts to achieve this important raw material for steel production. Diversification of sources.