Inventories reduce steel prices into phased rebound

Inventory reduction Steel prices rebounded into stages The supply of crude steel remains robust, but potential reductions are on the horizon. According to recent data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel by key enterprises in mid-June reached 1.7455 million tons, up by 14,000 tons compared to the previous month, representing a 0.79% monthly increase. This figure is slightly below the peak of 1.748 million tons recorded in early May, marking the second-highest level this year. Meanwhile, the estimated national crude steel output for mid-June was 2.264 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons, or 0.37% month-on-month. Non-key enterprises produced approximately 419,000 tons of crude steel during the same period, down by 0.6 million tons from the previous month, accounting for 19.4% of total production—a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the prior month. Steel mills have seen improved profitability this week, thanks to falling ore prices. The loss per ton of steel has dropped to around RMB 200. In the Tangshan area, blast furnace operating rates have remained steady at about 91%. This suggests that financial constraints are pushing steel prices higher from their lows. While this may seem challenging, it could actually be beneficial for the long-term development of the steel industry. The current financial pressures might also accelerate industrial restructuring, leading some less efficient steel mills to exit the market earlier than expected. Inventories have been steadily declining since mid-February, signaling improved fundamentals. Social steel stock levels have fallen for 14 consecutive weeks, dropping to 17 million tons as of last week. Specifically, inventory levels fell to 7.6 million tons, with a weekly decline of 1.95% and a month-on-month drop of 2.72%. In Tangshan, steel billet inventories have also continued to fall, decreasing from a high of 1.97 million tons to 880,000 tons—down by 56%. Based on these inventory trends, if supply and demand conditions remain unchanged, steel prices are likely to reach a bottom. The extent and timing of any rebound will depend on further supply reductions and shifts in demand. Capital market tensions have intensified their impact on the steel industry. Since late June, rising interest rates due to tighter liquidity from commercial banks and central bank policies have led to a sharp increase in domestic capital costs. The Shanghai interbank offered rate (SHIBOR) once surged to 9.67%. These funding shortages are not only affecting steel trading but are beginning to spread to end-user markets. Many banks plan to reduce their exposure in the second half of the year, and some steel mills are already feeling the pressure from delayed returns. In Jiangxi, several small steel mills have halted operations due to cash flow issues. The broader impact of tight capital availability on the steel sector is even more significant, especially considering the real estate market’s tightening capital chain. This could lead the industry back into a contraction phase. From a real estate perspective, the ongoing "money shortage" is creating pressure on developers’ capital chains, increasing costs and potentially slowing new housing starts and construction activity, which in turn could negatively affect steel prices. Downstream sectors such as machinery and infrastructure will also feel the ripple effects.

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