Supporting the policy, whether the photovoltaic industry can embark on the right path

**Abstract** China's photovoltaic industry is facing a tough winter, burdened by domestic overcapacity, foreign EU "double opposition," and internal and external challenges. In this environment, the market is increasingly looking for policy support to drive recovery. With growing expectations from the industry, the government has officially released policy documents aimed at promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic sector. Industry insiders believe that with the release of these detailed guidelines, the direction of the industry has been clarified, and it is expected to move into a more stable growth phase. **The Domestic Market May Trigger a Rise in Concept Stocks** Recently, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry." This document further refines the "National Six Articles" aimed at boosting domestic PV demand. It increases the target for PV power generation in 2015 by 75% compared to 20 million kilowatts, aiming for an additional 30 million kilowatts of installed capacity over the next three years. For the first time, the document clearly sets electricity pricing, subsidies, and grid access thresholds. According to Any Wenhua, deputy director of the Meishan Aluminum-Silicon Industrial Park Management Committee, the new policy will help open up the domestic PV market, benefiting large and medium-sized companies with strong financial and technical capabilities. A source from a suspended polysilicon company in Sichuan said: "Under the broader policy framework, it’s crucial for specific rules to be issued. The policies from the government will further open up the domestic market. Only when consumers start buying will our production side benefit. At present, we’re cutting costs through technological upgrades, but even starting operations means we’re still losing money. We won’t resume full production until the market improves. Many enterprises in Sichuan are currently idle, waiting for the right moment. Policy changes could bring a much-needed turnaround." Analyst Yao Zheng from Guangzheng Hengsheng Securities noted that the government is no longer encouraging blind expansion. Instead, it aims to eliminate outdated technology and poor-quality producers, pushing for mergers and acquisitions to foster leading companies with strong R&D and market competitiveness. "The biggest highlight of the new policy is the promotion of distributed photovoltaics. Over the next three years (2013–2015), annual average installed capacity is expected to reach around 10 GW, with total capacity exceeding 35 GW by 2015. Compared to less than 8 GW in 2012, this represents a more than threefold increase in three years. The new policy will bring fresh opportunities for mid-western leaders and polysilicon producers." Driven by positive news, PV concept stocks surged against the broader market on the 16th. Approximately 80% of sector stocks rose, with Lida Optoelectronics, Tiantong, Longji, and others hitting daily limits. The sector's gains ranked among the best across all markets. **PV Profits Rebound, Market Welcomes Thematic Opportunities** The policy has given PV concept stocks a chance to rebound. As implementation progresses, many industry players expect the domestic market to gradually open up. Guifang Xiao, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, stated that while the policy aligns with expectations, the real impact will depend on the details being finalized. He also pointed out that the mid-term reports of PV companies are expected to show improvement, suggesting a potential industry turnaround. He maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the sector. From an industry perspective, the sector is still in a deep restructuring phase. Domestic polysilicon enterprises operate at low capacity, and overseas PV companies continue to face bankruptcy. Deng Haolong, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, noted that several overseas PV firms have gone bankrupt, signaling ongoing industry adjustment. However, domestic leaders in inverters, silicon wafers, and components have shown strong performance due to scale and cost advantages. Profitability is expected to improve in the second and third quarters, with a focus on quarterly turning points for leading component manufacturers. Although short-term product prices remain under pressure, rising prices in the second quarter have led to better-than-expected earnings for some PV companies, with some turning losses into profits. Upcoming quarterly reports are expected to reflect improved performance, driven by higher prices in the first half of the year. Among the PV concept stocks that have released first-half results, many have seen profit improvements. Although Longji’s net profit is expected to decline by over 35% year-on-year, it is projected to achieve a net profit of between 20-22 million yuan, reversing from a Q1 loss of 15.91 million yuan. Q2 profits could reach as high as 38 million yuan, showing a significant rebound. Sunshine Power, Dongfang Risheng, and Sunflower have also reported positive results, with Dongfang Risheng’s net profit expected to rise by 1553%-2544%. Some analysts advise investors to pay attention to the thematic opportunities brought by guidance and subsidy policies. Hou Wentao, an analyst at Guo Wen Junan Securities, believes the State Council’s policy has boosted recovery expectations for the PV industry. The strong government support has also raised hopes for a tax rate reduction, with fundamentals expected to improve significantly. It is anticipated that domestic PV demand will grow by 2GW, 6GW, and 8GW in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively. He recommends Sunshine Power, Longji, Dongfang Risheng, Xinda New Materials, and TBEA.

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