The IMF report recommends a delay of 9 months before deciding whether the RMB will be included in the SDR.

Abstract The International Monetary Fund [IMF] published in the morning of August 5th, Beijing time at 5 am, entitled "Special Drawing Rights (SDR) Valuation Method Evaluation - Preliminary Considerations" report, the RMB is included in the SDR evaluation of&...
The International Monetary Fund [microblogging] (IMF) released at 5 am on August 5th, Beijing time, entitled "Special Drawing Rights (SDR) Valuation Method Evaluation - Preliminary Considerations" report, the inclusion of RMB in SDR The assessment “there is still a lot of work to do”, and the RMB has made “significant progress” in international use since 2010. If the RMB is included in the SDR, operational issues must be resolved.

The IMF assessment report not only explores the operational impact of the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR currency basket, but also recommends a delay of nine months before deciding whether to include the RMB in the SDR currency basket.

The report does not mention the Chinese government's recent intervention in the stock market. IMF President Lagarde said last week that stock market intervention will not affect whether SDR is included in the renminbi.

Why postpone the decision?
It is worth noting that the report suggests that the current currency basket assessment may be extended from the current December 31 to nine months until September 30, 2016, when a final decision is made. The report emphasizes that this proposal may be adopted after a period of discussion by the IMF Board of Directors, and the timing and conclusion of the assessment are not predetermined.

Wall Street News participated in a conference call by senior IMF officials before the report was released. Siddharth Tiwari, director of the IMF's Strategy, Policy and Inspection Department, said the council will decide in August whether to agree to the extension. And stressed that the purpose of the extension is to give SDR users more certainty, can plan how to build a currency basket, especially after joining the new currency may need to balance the portfolio. He stressed that the extension is not to give China more time, but to make reserve asset managers better prepared.

The reason for the delay is that some SDR users mentioned that they are worried that introducing a new currency basket on the first trading day of the year will increase the risk and cost. This also helps to reduce the uncertainty faced by SDR users, facilitates smooth SDR-related operations, and allows sufficient time to make the necessary adjustments to contractual arrangements.

The renminbi is also "card" in the second condition: free to use
Recently, whether the RMB can be included in the discussion of SDR has become the focus of attention at home and abroad.

The so-called "Special Drawing Right" (SDR) is a reserve asset and accounting unit created by the International Monetary Fund. It can act as an international reserve like gold and freely convertible currencies. The current basket of special drawing rights includes the four major currencies of the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

With the rise of emerging market countries, the SDR component currency representation is declining, and the call to expand the SDR basket currency is growing. Many economists believe that the renminbi's participation in SDR is unstoppable. The inclusion of RMB in the SDR basket will help to fully reflect the world economic structure, make an important contribution to the stability and value of SDR, and is an important step in the reform of the international monetary system.

The IMF imposes two conditions on the entry of a country's currency into the SDR: first, the country's total exports of goods and services rank among the top members of all countries, and second, the currency should be “freely usable”.

According to the report released by the IMF on Tuesday, in the last assessment, China met the “entry requirement” for “export”, but the RMB was not included in the SDR because “it is not judged to be free to use. This is The second requirement for currency selection.” Since then, China has continued to meet the “export” requirement, which discusses the main factors that determine whether the renminbi will be included in the SDR currency basket in the future.

According to the report, a series of broad indicators based on available data show that the RMB has achieved “significant progress” in international use since the 2010 SDR assessment. The international use of the renminbi is increasing from a lower base, and this is a “lasting trend”.

China has become the world's largest trader of goods for 13 years and the third largest service trader in the world. According to the WTO [microblogging] data, China's exports accounted for 12.37% of the world's exports in 14 years, higher than the US's 8.57%, Germany's 8% and Japan's 3.6%. Therefore, the renminbi has already met the first condition.

The proportion of RMB used in trade has increased from 0.02% in 2009 to nearly 25% last year. There are currently 15 offshore RMB clearing centers around the world, and the People's Bank of China [microblogging] has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 26 countries and regions, including the United Kingdom, South Korea, Australia, and Russia, with a total size of US$430 billion. .

The latest global foreign exchange reserve data shows that as of the third quarter of 2014, the US dollar accounted for 62.3% of the global reserve. It is difficult for the renminbi to surpass its influence to become the dominant currency, but the renminbi becoming the world's fifth reserve currency will further promote cross-border investment and increase the possibility of the renminbi becoming a pricing currency.

This report is based on the last assessment in 2010 and the discussion of currency selection criteria in 2011. As always, the goal of this assessment is to strengthen the appeal of SDR as an international reserve asset. In this context, the assessment will evaluate the SDR basket of currencies, their weights, and the SDR interest rate basket.

Operational level issues to be resolved
The report explores the operational impact of incorporating the RMB into the SDR currency basket. “Representative market-based exchange rates and interest rate availability are critical to the sound operation of the SDR basket and the financial operations of the IMF. The ability to hedge SDR positions is also important for many IMF members and other SDR users. The report said that China's restrictions on the entry of offshore markets pose difficulties at the above operational levels, although the Chinese government has found some potential mitigation methods and began to implement them.

The report said that the following aspects of the work will help the IMF Board to make a better final decision: make up for the data gap; improve the quantitative analysis of the free use of money; and evaluate the RMB by consulting IMF member countries and SDR users. Whether it can meet operational requirements, including the results of the government's continued implementation of market-based measures.

It is only a matter of time before the RMB joins the SDR
The composition of the SDR currency basket is assessed every five years, so if it is not selected this time, the RMB will have to wait at least another five years before it has a chance to be considered.

As early as March of this year, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan took advantage of the China Development Forum to discuss with the IMF CEO Lagarde on the entry of the RMB into the SDR. At the IMF Annual Meeting in April, Zhou Xiaochuan gave a speech on the road map for the opening of the RMB capital project in Washington and expressed his willingness to join the SDR.

IMF Managing Director Lagarde said in March that there is no doubt that the RMB has joined the SDR, just a matter of time.

Is it important for the RMB to join the SDR currency basket?
In a report released by the macro research team of CICC in May, if the RMB is added to the currency basket, all IMF member countries will automatically increase their holdings of RMB assets through their SDRs. A 10% weight corresponds to an asset size of approximately US$28 billion (approximately RMB 175 billion), which is equivalent to the current position of the British pound or Japanese yen, and its volume is not negligible.

Of course, SDR only accounts for 2.4% of global reserve assets (2014 data), and its use is not exactly the same as the currency of the currency. In the past, the actual use of SDR was mainly converted to US dollars and Euros, and rarely to British pounds. JPY. Therefore, the direct impact of joining the SDR on the use of the renminbi as a reserve currency will not be significant.

However, joining the SDR has important symbolic significance for the internationalization of the RMB. To a certain extent, it represents the endorsement of the IMF and official institutions. It is not only an acknowledgement of China's growing influence in the world economy, but also helps to strengthen the market's confidence in the renminbi. SDR currency is often regarded as a safe haven currency, and obtaining this status will undoubtedly increase the use of the renminbi by the public and private sectors on an international scale.

More importantly, the Chinese government's policy measures aimed at creating conditions for the renminbi to join SDR will promote the reform and opening up of China's financial system, thus having a profound impact on the Chinese economy. Efforts to join SDR will translate into an irreversible financial liberalization process that will force China's financial industry to face competition and improve efficiency. If handled properly, the driving influence of joining the SDR on China's financial industry is comparable to the promotion of the real economy, especially the export sector, when it joined the WTO.

What is SDR?
At the beginning of the flaws in the Bretton Woods system in 1969, the IMF created the SDR to alleviate the inherent risks of sovereign currency as a reserve currency, providing an idea for the reform of the international monetary system.

The value of the SDR is determined by a basket of freely usable currencies, including the US dollar, the euro, the pound, and the Japanese yen, which have weights of 41.9%, 37.4%, 11.3%, and 9.4%, respectively. The SDR also has an interest rate determined weekly, in which interest is paid by the Member State that borrows less than the allocated amount, that is, borrowed from the reserve to the reserve lender.

SDR itself is not a currency, nor is it a claim to the IMF. It is a potential claim of Member States to other Member States or designated holders of the IMF. Member States can exchange their SDRs with the corresponding amount of “hard currency” foreign exchange to repay the balance of payments deficit or repay the IMF loan when needed. Therefore, the essence of SDR is a risk sharing mechanism to deal with the shortage of international liquidity. SDRs are allocated according to the share of Member States in the IMF. The private sector cannot hold or use SDR. As of March 2015, the total number of SDRs allocated to Member States by the IMF amounted to 204 billion (approximately US$280 billion).

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