Analyze the status and direction of development of new fertilizers

This year, the domestic urea market price has fallen from 2,100 yuan (t price, the same below) to 1,600 yuan. For businesses, the decline of $500 is the process of gradually squeezing out risks. However, the price competition among urea manufacturers has become increasingly fierce. New manufacturers in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and other places have played "low-cost licenses." Swords refer to high-cost old devices, and the price war has become fierce.

In-kind production of urea: Output of 6.073 million tons in August 2013, output of 48.046 million tons in January-August 2013, output of 5.7942 million tons in August 2012, and output of 44.944 million tons in January-August 2012, cumulative increase of 8.2% year-on-year.

Urea production capacity: The national total urea production capacity is about 82 million tons. From 2012 to now, the capacity of new installations in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is about 10 million tons, including those not under construction. Currently, the capacity of the urea industry is still very fragmented. Of the 150 urea companies that count, 65 have an annual production capacity of less than 500,000 tons, and the total production capacity accounts for about 25% of the total industry capacity; 26 companies with an annual production capacity of over 1 million tons have the total production capacity. It does not exceed 45% of the total capacity of the industry.

Urea Exports: In August 2013, the export of urea was 1,438,800 tons, from January to August, a total of 4,068,400 tons, an increase of 203% compared with the same period of last year.

The domestic undigested urea can only be expected to export. In July and August, the monthly export of urea reached 1.3 million to 1.4 million tons. Although the export volume in the off-season increased by a lot over the same period of last year, the transaction price fell by 50 to 60 US dollars compared with the same period of last year. India is the largest international buyer of urea in China, and exports half of its urea to the Indian market each year.

Raw coal: In the first 9 months of this year, the domestic anthracite coal market showed a U-shaped trend. At the beginning of the year, the price of anthracite fell sharply due to the downturn in the coal market environment and the unfavorable situation of industrial enterprises. However, after entering the second half of the year, as the domestic macroeconomic environment has improved, the demand for anthracite has also been boosted, and prices have rebounded slightly from the previous period. However, due to the limited rebound in the chemical market, the price has not recovered from the loss of land at the beginning of the year, and the market has been steadily climbing in a narrow range.

Downstream compound fertilizer: This year, the compound fertilizer market rose first and then declined. After the first year of the year, the price of the compound fertilizer rose slightly. However, as the time passed, the spring market was not over yet and the market appeared a downward trend and continued into the autumn. The demand and raw materials aspects are the key influencing factors. The sales volume of agent sales of compound fertilizers is reduced by 20% to 40%. The sales volume of retailers is not much different from that of previous years. The reason is not only that the brands are large and miscellaneous, but also because of the high temperature, drought, strong rainfall, hail and other disasters, the crops are cut down, land circulation, food crops The low prices also affect the enthusiasm of farmers for planting. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 4,000 compound fertilizer companies registered in the register, with over 100 million tons of production capacity and less than 60 million tons of demand.

To sum up, this year's urea market is saying: "Hard work for several decades, returned to liberation overnight." From the perspective of the operating conditions of the agricultural material companies in the first half of the year, there are many losses and losses, and operations are on thin ice. The next winter reserves fertilizer, the manufacturer's game has just begun, the latter will experience three stages of production cost reduction, excess supply and demand price reduction, survival of the fittest. Prolonged war of urea has already started. The author believes that the future is bright, the road is tortuous, and the urea market need not be overly pessimistic. Fed operations can be used, but buyouts need to be cautious.