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Behind the WTO Rare Earth Dispute between China and Japan
The Sino-Japanese Rare Earth Dispute has been a long-standing issue that highlights the complexities of international trade and resource control. On March 26, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released a report from an expert panel regarding the U.S., EU, and Japan’s complaint against China's export controls on rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum. The ruling found that China's measures violated WTO regulations, marking another loss in what has become a recurring pattern.
This outcome was not entirely unexpected. Since 2010, predictions of China's potential defeat in similar disputes have been common. In 2009, China lost a case involving restrictions on nine raw materials, including bauxite and coke. This time, the challenge centers on China's control over five key rare earth elements. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures can offset previous losses or if China will be able to navigate the legal challenges effectively.
The dispute officially began in March 2012 when Japan accused China of violating WTO rules by restricting the export of rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum. According to Zhang Hanlin, director of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, China had already lost the case from the start due to clear violations of WTO principles.
Experts like Tang Yin from the Academy of Social Economics and Strategy analyzed the case early on, pointing out two main issues: whether China's export restrictions were in line with Article 20(g) of GATT, which allows countries to protect natural resources, and whether the export tariffs met the required exceptions. It was noted that China lacked evidence of domestic production or consumption restrictions, which weakened its legal position. Additionally, procedural requirements for export taxes were not properly followed, further undermining its defense.
Two years later, the WTO expert group’s findings closely aligned with these initial analyses, confirming the weaknesses in China’s approach. Meanwhile, Japanese media, such as the "Japan Economic News," often framed the dispute in more emotional terms, drawing parallels to past energy crises and suggesting it was a form of economic warfare.
Chinese economist Lang Xianping criticized the lack of understanding of WTO rules among Chinese officials, warning that without proper legal strategies, China would continue to face setbacks. Analysts like Chang Sheng and Shou Liang also predicted China's eventual failure, citing factors such as global shifts in rare earth mining, technological advancements, and declining imports in Japan.
As the case progressed, U.S. law firm Stewart & Co. highlighted China's failure to adjust policies after previous losses and questioned the legitimacy of its exception clauses. Japanese media speculated about China's likely defeat, while Western outlets like the Financial Times and the New York Times reported that the WTO had not confirmed any official interim findings.
Despite the uncertainty, many analysts advised China to prepare for a potential loss, emphasizing the need for tighter regulation of rare earth exports to prevent smuggling and misuse. As the situation unfolds, the dispute continues to reflect broader tensions between national interests and international trade laws.