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China Steel Association: Steel industry will be more difficult in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year
“Now the profit of selling one ton of steel in the steel industry is a piece of sixty-eight!†Wang Xiaoqi, vice president of China Iron and Steel Association, said that China’s steel industry is in the most difficult period of history. According to the data of the previous weeks in August, the industry’s The loss is still expanding, and the steel industry is expected to face a more difficult situation in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Wang Xiaoqi made the above statement at the “2012 China Coal Coke Industry Chain Supply and Demand Summit Forum†held in Qingdao. He introduced that the steel industry suffered losses in January and February this year, and began to make money from March to May. However, as steel prices continued to fall, industry profits fell, and losses again occurred in July. In the first half of the year, the profit converted into tons of steel reached 6.68 yuan, and the profit of tons of steel in the first seven months fell to 1.68 yuan. According to a sample survey, the industry's losses in the second week of August reached 81%, and the loss in the third week expanded to 83%, and the loss side has increased. “The direct reason for the large losses in the steel industry is that the demand for the steel industry is shrinking.†Wang Xiaoqi said that the largest user of steel is construction, accounting for about 55%, half of which is related to real estate, while real estate development falls, other roads and bridges. Water conservancy facilities, airport construction, etc. The second largest demand is manufacturing, and the manufacturing growth rate has dropped from the previous two digits to a single digit. Wang Xiaoqi said that according to the sampling survey of five steel samples in 22 cities, the real social stock of the steel industry is not 10 million tons, but 60 million tons, or even 70 million tons. Coupled with the inventory of steel companies, the entire steel inventory is more than 100 million tons, the late destocking pressure is huge, there is still a lot of room for inventory reduction. Wang Xiaoqi believes that excessive steel inventories affect the profits of the steel industry in the later period, and in the context of the difficulty of introducing large-scale stimulus policies, it is estimated that the fourth quarter or next year will be more difficult than now. However, the deep-seated causes of difficulties in the steel industry are mainly overcapacity and low concentration. Wang Xiaoqi believes that the difficult situation in the steel industry will push the price of raw materials to a deeper adjustment. Since the beginning of this year, the price of steel has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan per ton, the price of coke has fallen by more than 300 yuan, and the price of iron ore has only dropped by about 200 yuan. According to a reasonable proportion, the mine and coal have further room for price reduction, and the space is large.