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According to the market data provided by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's polysilicon prices showed a moderate upward trend in the third quarter. At the beginning of July, before the introduction of the anti-dumping preliminary ruling of the United States and South Korea, the spot price of polysilicon was 105,000-13.5 million yuan/ton, and the average price was maintained at 1.2227 million yuan/ton. On July 18, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the production of beauty. After South Korea’s solar-grade polysilicon adopted temporary anti-dumping measures, the price of polysilicon rose slightly and reached 13.4 million yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 9.2%.
With the advancement of the "double-reverse" ruling, some domestic polysilicon enterprises were greatly encouraged and resumed production. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, as of the end of the third quarter, there were 10 companies that announced the resumption of production, including A-share listed companies such as TBEA and CSG A.
Among them, the newly-recovered enterprises in the third quarter include: Luoyang Zhongsi realized full recovery on August 18; Yichang CSG A polysilicon plant experienced 11 months of parking maintenance and upgrade, and officially on August 4 Driving; Shaanxi Tianhong resumed production in September after the production was shut down and staff training was completed at the end of 2012.
According to reports, TBEA's 12,000 tons polysilicon project has achieved stable production and is expected to reach full production by the end of 2013. Up to now, its 12,000 tons of polysilicon single-line equipment has been commissioned, and has produced 400 tons of high-quality polysilicon products. According to statistics, the operating rate of resumption of production including Sichuan Ruineng Silicon Materials and Kunming Yeyan has reached 50%, and the Asian silicon industry has been fully produced since March 2013.
According to analysts from the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in addition to the newly-recovered enterprises, a few polysilicon companies announced an increase in production in the third quarter. The output of the whole industry in the third quarter was about 21,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous quarter. 14.3%.
Although spot prices have risen steadily, some companies are rushing to resume production, but the analysis generally believes that this does not mean that the polysilicon industry as a whole has bid farewell to the "cold winter" state and began to warm up.
The above analysts said that from the perspective of the entire PV industry, there is not much room for new PV market demand at the end of the year, which directly leads to a large reversal of supply and demand in the upstream polysilicon segment. The annual production and demand can only barely maintain balance. "The resumption of production of some enterprises does not mean that the industry has warmed up. These enterprises are more eager to maintain their resumption of production status in order to gain a dominant position in the upcoming polysilicon industry integration tide," the analyst said.
In fact, there are still many uncertainties in the polysilicon industry. The most prominent one is that the contradiction of overcapacity of polysilicon has not been lifted. This essential problem will still prevent polysilicon prices from entering the upward channel.
Some brokerage researchers have previously analyzed that the domestic demand for polysilicon market is expected to reach 80,000 tons this year, but domestic enterprises can now form an effective capacity of more than 140,000 tons. Even if imports are not considered, the situation of oversupply of polysilicon in the domestic market will remain Long-term maintenance.
The market is mild and stabilizes some polysilicon advantages
Abstract In the third quarter, the spot price of domestic polysilicon showed a moderate upward trend, and supply and demand remained stable. Affected by this positive, some domestic polysilicon leading enterprises have begun to gradually resume production, and the dilemma of almost all the industry's suspension of production has improved over the past year. However, there are still analysts who recognize...
In the third quarter, the domestic spot price of polysilicon showed a moderate upward trend, and supply and demand remained stable. Affected by this positive, some domestic polysilicon leading enterprises have begun to gradually resume production, and the dilemma of almost all the industry's suspension of production has improved over the past year. However, there are still analysts who believe that many unfavorable factors in the polysilicon industry are still in effect. It is expected that the market will still be unable to change the "ice seal" status during the year.